Nytt gjeldskutt uunngåelig for Hellas?

Av - 18.6.2012 14:42

Porteføljeforvalter Torgeir Høien i Skagen Fondene er kjapt ute med en vurdering av alternativene for Hellas, EU og “troikaen” etter gårsdagens valg. Høien drøfter de forskjellige koalisjonsalternativene og prøver så å se lengre fram. Hva vil skje de neste månedene?

It is to be expected, however, that a new agreement, with somewhat lower interest rates and slightly less burdensome austerity conditions, is going to be signed by Athens and the troika within a month. EFSF/IMF money will then continue flowing to Greece. Such a deal would help Greece, but it would probably not be enough to solve Athens’ fundamental problems: the sovereign debt is too large and the economy keeps shrinking. The final round in the these bail-out games is probably going to be played later this year or early next year. I believe that the best outcome would be if the troika accepts a partial default on publicly held Greek debt and, what is less likely, that Mr Samaras morphs into a Hellenic Mrs Thatcher and fundamentally alters the way the Greek economy works.

(via FT eurozone crisis live blog.)

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