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Et logisk forslag?

Av - 13.11.2011 18:06

The Economists blogg Free Exchange har et interessant forslag til hvordan Den europeiske sentralbanken kunne introdusert en ny og positiv dynamikk i finansmarkedenes syn på europroblemene:

Imagine the ECB were to announce publicly that if the Spanish government continued its reform efforts according to an independent IMF supervision, it would back Spanish debt in full from a certain point in time on (for instance a year from now depending on the IMF-approved reform plan) and will not tolerate yields above, say, 4% at that point. This target could be lowered to 3.5% after another year if the Spanish progress continues further, or increased if it doesn’t. What would the consequences be? The Spanish people will realise that the ECB and Europe stand behind them as long as Spain keeps up the reform efforts. The new Spanish government in turn will continue its reform agenda in order to be rewarded by the ECB. Markets, anticipating this, will let yields drop to slightly above 4% immediately without any actual purchases by the ECB.

Poenget, som jeg synes virker fornuftig, er å utnytte markedenes tendens til å se framover. Politikere og sentralbanker trenger ikke løse alle problemene med en gang, bare det ser ut som det går den riktige veien:

One objection is that the ECB cannot wait for reforms in countries like Italy to materialise. But this is ignoring the forward-looking nature of markets. With such an ECB/IMF policy in place, the only variable that the markets need to determine is the willingness to reform now and in the medium-term future. And the ECB does not need to take bonds on its books before the reforms have been implemented properly. If the reforms have been implemented, the ECB might not have to buy any bonds.

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