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En fransk seier?

Av - 9.12.2011 11:41

Før EU-toppmøtet gjorde Tyskland det klart at landet helst ville ha en traktatendring for hele EU. En finanspolitisk union ville måtte bety en styrking av unionens institusjoner (se sak om “plan A”).

Nicolas Sarkozy har på sin side vært mye mer åpen for en delt løsning, der eurosonen går videre med dypere integrasjon uavhengig av mer skeptiske medlemsland.

Krangelen med David Cameron under nattens møte var hovedsak i mediene i morges, men faktisk passer den forestående delingen Sarkozy bra, påpeker Economists Charlemagne:

But especially for France, on the brink of losing its AAA credit rating and now the junior partner to Germany, this is a famous political victory. President Nicolas Sarkozy had long favoured the creation of a smaller, “core” euro zone, without the awkward British, Scandinavians and eastern Europeans that generally pursue more liberal, market-oriented policies. And he has wanted the core run on an inter-governmental basis, ie by leaders rather than by supranational European institutions. This would allow France, and Mr Sarkozy in particular, to maximise its impact.

Tyskerne er nok på sin side atskillig mer betenkte over resultatet, men Angela Merkel har helt sikkert vurdert det som en nødvendighet hvis plan A med ny traktat for alle landene ikke lyktes.

Det store spørsmålet er selvsagt likevel: Virker det? Er dette et steg mot å redde euroen, eller det motsatte? Siden krisen fortsatt er en statsgjeldskrise, er markedenes dom viktig. De første timene ser det ikke bra ut. Differansen mellom renten på tyske og franske, italienske og spanske obligasjoner øker igjen, etter at de falt betydelig for noen dager siden.

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