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Eurokrisen: Plan A mot Plan B

Av - 10.2.2011 14:08

Mange (de fleste?) analytikere mener at Hellas ikke kommer utenom en sanering av sin statsgjeld. Kanskje det samme gjelder andre kriseland i eurosonen. Men Den europeiske sentralbanken (ESB) fortsetter naturligvis å argumentere for plan A, det vil si å få Hellas’ økonomi på fote igjen gjennom budsjettkutt og reformer. Styremedlem i ESB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi holdt i går en presentasjon (pdf) ved London School of Economics der han presenterer argumentene for plan A og mot plan B (gjeldssanering). Presentasjonen inneholder masse data og ESB-argumentene kokt ned til det essensielle. Eksempel:

Plan B implies:
Restructuring –> Wealth effect –> Demand shock
Impact on the banking system –> Investment –> Lower capital stock –> Supply shock

Plan A implies:
Increase in primary surplus –> Demand shock

Anbefales.

Tipset kom fra Hugh Barton-Smith.

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